Tigers Took Advantage of Massive Mariners Misjudgment to Win Game 1
SEATTLE — The most dangerous hitter in the Detroit Tigers lineup has never hit 30 homers, driven in 70 runs or made an All-Star team. Injuries and left-handed pitchers have kept Kerry Carpenter from elite statistical thresholds and acclaim. But don’t do what the Seattle Mariners did in Game 1 of the ALDS: overlook him.
Carpenter is a career .507 slugger who mashes high fastballs. This year he slugged .571 against high fastballs (at least 33 inches off the ground), the 12th best mark among hitters who saw at least 350 such heaters—ahead of Shohei Ohtani, Jose Ramirez and Cal Raleigh.
“One thing about Carp,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said, “is he can be streaky. But no matter what, he’s looking to get off his A swing. Even if it’s two strikes, he can do damage. And that’s why he is so dangerous.”
The Mariners did not respect the danger ever present in Carpenter’s bat, and that is why they suffered a brutally painful 3–2 loss Saturday. They burned their closer for six outs and still lost, knowing they are staring at seeing the best pitcher on the planet, Tarik Skubal, two of the next four possible games, including Game 2 Sunday. Ouch.
Yes, a 73-mph, 15-hop single from Zach McKinstry plated the winning run in the 11th inning, a run set up by two egregious mistakes by Seattle reliever Carlos Vargas at such a juncture: a leadoff walk and a wild pitch.
But it was one swing by Carpenter that changed everything, a swing that should never have been permitted by the Mariners. Seattle manager Dan Wilson, running his first postseason game, held a 1–0 lead in the fifth with one on, two outs and first base open with George Kirby on the mound. Wilson had his best lefty, Gabe Speier, up in the pen with Carpenter due to bat with another lefty, Riley Greene, behind him.
Wilson sent pitching coach Pete Woodworth to the mound for a conversation with Kirby.
“Yes, in the back of my mind I thought they weren’t going to pitch to me,” Carpenter said, adding with a laugh, “Maybe my first two at-bats convinced them.”
Hinch had set a trap for Wilson by batting Greene and Carpenter back-to-back. By showing he will pitch-hit for either one with lefty masher Jahmai Jones, Hinch puts the onus on the other manager early in a game. No matter what option you choose, Hinch will have the platoon advantage.
Wilson chose to have Kirby pitch to Carpenter, even though Carpenter had four home runs in 10 at-bats against Kirby. Even though Carpenter is a high fastball hitter.
“Yeah. It’s a tough one,” Wilson said, “and you do the best you can and try to take the information that you have and what you’re seeing. And we thought George continued to throw the ball pretty well there and still had pretty good stuff and a lot left in the tank, and he had been in a couple of tough spots earlier, but really pitched out of it well.”
Kirby, a high-fastball pitcher, has the stuff to better attack Greene, not Carpenter.
“With Carpenter,” Wilson said, “you're trying to keep it down in the zone or trying to get him to chase up in the zone.”
Said Carpenter: “I always feel like the more I face people, the more opportunity I have to have success. And so yeah, I was hoping to get another opportunity off him.”
Kirby opened with a slider in the zone that Carpenter fouled. The next pitch was an elevated sinker that was inside but was mistakenly called a strike.
“That ball called a strike probably changed the at-bat,” Carpenter said.
Now the count was 0-and-2. Carpenter had one homer all year after falling behind 0-and-2. It was easy now for Wilson and Kirby to throw caution aside and think they could finish him off.
Kirby missed with a sinker in. He decided to throw a third straight fastball. This one headed straight to Carpenter’s power zone: elevated over the plate. Carpenter crushed it harder than any home run he’s ever hit in his life: 112.5 mph.
He has hit only two home runs at 110 mph or harder, both in the postseason: one off Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase last season (110.8) and this one off Kirby (112.5), his fifth home run in 11 at-bats against the righthander.
“That’s what Carp does in the postseason,” McKinstry said. Carpenter has a postseason slash line of .294/.385/.500.
You simply cannot lose a lead by letting Kirby throw another elevated fastball to Carpenter. You knew that going into the game.
Carpenter typifies what the Tigers are about. Other than Skubal, they are low on star power. They strike out way too much. In Game 1 they became only the fifth team to win a postseason game with 16 strikeouts over 11 innings or less. They went 2-for-18 with runners on base, with eight of those at-bats ending with strikeouts. Empty at-bats galore.
And yet they won the game on swings from Carpenter and McKinstry. They used eight pitchers, the last of whom, Keider Montero, secured a save for the first time since pitching for the while playing Little League ball in Venezuela.
“I don’t pay attention to the name on the back,” Montero said after dispatching Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor for the save. “No matter when I pitch, I attack.”
Detroit, with all the strikeouts in its lineup and not enough whiffs in its bullpen, somehow is the best team in baseball at winning one-run games (23–12).
The Tigers became the first team to lose five straight series entering the postseason and advance. The wild-card Game 3 win restored their confidence. The dread of blowing a 15.5-game lead to Cleveland and the potential of being sent home by Cleveland has been replaced with the swagger they had in the first half after eliminating the Guardians. Their airways are fully open again. The Tigers are dangerous again, and not just on the days Skubal pitches.