Leeds shouldn’t change as predictive model shows they’re likely to go up

This article is part of Football FanCast’s Opinion series, which provides analysis, insight and opinion on any issue within the beautiful game, from Paul Pogba’s haircuts to League Two relegation battles…

By the time this season ends, Leeds United will have been in the Championship for 16 years.

To say that they were Champions League semi-finalists around the turn of the millennium that is a shocking stat, and there’s nothing that Leeds fans will want more than to finally reach the promised land of the Premier League.

While Leeds may sit in third in the Championship this season, the SPI rankings make for great reading as they show that promotion this season is highly likely.

Of course, many of you will be scratching your heads wondering what SPI rankings are, but luckily we can explain what on earth we’re referring to when we talk about those.

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For starters, SPI stands for Soccer Power Index, and while it may sound convoluted, it’s actually quite a simple prediction model that uses xG, Transfermarkt valuations and the Poisson process to simulate football matches throughout a season.

Interesting isn’t it? Of course, these will never be 100% accurate, but the exciting thing for Leeds fans is that this model reckons that the Whites have a 69% chance of being promoted this term.

Of course, Leeds historically have a reputation for ‘falling apart again’, but if they can avoid that phenomena this season it seems as if they’ve got a great chance of going up.

This graph shows that Leeds must be doing something right on the pitch as the Transfermarkt valuation part of the process has Leeds as the fourth most valuable squad in the division, yet they’re the clear favourites for promotion.

This shows that Leeds shouldn’t change anything they’re doing on the pitch. Realistically they should be winning games and scoring goals as they create plenty of chances while being able to keep the ball out of their own net.

Spurs fans pleased with Eric Dier’s display against West Ham

[ad_pod ]Tottenham Hotspur fans have hailed Eric Dier after his contribution to his side’s 3-2 win over West Ham United on Saturday.Goals from Son Heung-Min, Lucas Moura and Harry Kane proved decisive against Manuel Pellegrini’s men, with Spurs recording their first away win in the league since January.The former Sporting Lisbon midfielder was picked to start by Jose Mourinho in his first game as manager and patrolled the midfield alongside Harry Winks.

Per WhoScored, he won nine aerial duels throughout the game, had a pass success rate of 80% and also made one tackle, three clearances and one interception.

Dier had made just three appearances in the Premier League under Mauricio Pochettino prior to his sacking but he may well become a fixture under Mourinho in the coming months, should he keep turning in performances of such quality.

And supporters were delighted with his display in east London.

Take a look at the best of the reaction on Twitter below!

West Ham fans are underwhelmed by Jack Butland transfer links

West Ham United’s goalkeeper situation has been shocking while Lukasz Fabianski has been out with his hip injury.

A plethora of errors from Roberto have definitely been a contributing factor to the current seven-game winless run that the Hammers are enduring.

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It seems as though this has forced the hand of West Ham’s board in the transfer market, as ExWHUEmployee revealed on The West Ham Way podcast (Show 159, 39:58) that a move could be made for Jack Butland:

The club insider claimed that the deal would originally be a loan with the view to a permanent signing being made in the summer.

While there are some fans who say the nine-cap England international is better than Roberto, many don’t think that should be the benchmark and have been left underwhelmed by the proposed move.

Butland has conceded 19 goals in nine league games this season and was even dropped to the bench and has been replaced by Adam Federici at points during the current campaign.

A selection of reaction to the links, including posts from underwhelmed West Ham fans, can be seen below:

Man Utd’s Victor Lindelof shouldn’t be let off the hook amid Phil Jones criticism

This article is part of Football FanCast’s In Numbers series, which takes a statistical look at performances, season-long form and reported transfer targets… 

Following the arrival of Harry Maguire for a world-record fee for a defender back in the summer, Manchester United know they have a centre-back who is likely to be amongst the first-names on the team-sheet for a number of years. The real conundrum Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has on his hands, is who he decided to partner the former Leicester star with.

So far this season, that man has been Sweden international Victor Lindelof. The 25-year-old has played 14 times across all competitions, and was once again in the line-up for United’s clash against Sheffield United on Sunday afternoon. The Red Devils came away with a dramatic 3-3 draw at Bramall Lane, and much of the post-match criticism has revolved around Phil Jones’ horror showing.

Martin Keown hammered the England international for his role in the build-up the opening goal, and insisted he “always looked problematic” in the back-line. But whilst the former Blackburn man had a 45 minutes to forget, Lindelof should not be let off the hook for his own dismal display.

Lining up in a back-three, Lindelof was run ragged by the movement of both Lys Mousset and David McGoldrick, constantly having to deal with danger from out wide, rather than in the comfort of the central areas. As per Sofascore, he won just two of his seven aerial duels (three overall) as he also lost the physical battle against Sheffield United’s front two, and his struggles were shown by the fact he completed no tackles whatsoever over the course of the 90 minutes.

And the Swede’s time on the ball was similarly unproductive. Despite boasting 83 touches, he failed to provide a key pass into his midfielders or forwards, something Maguire was able to do. He also lost possession ten times, more than double what Jones managed (4) in his time on the pitch. The latter has been somewhat of a scapegoat, with fans of the Manchester side even criticising his error on Sunday. But whilst the focus has been on him, Lindelof has avoided much of the scrutiny – something that doesn’t make sense given his equally poor performance.

In other news, Manchester United star Marcus Rashford has fired a huge warning to the rest of the Premier League about his own potential.

Quiz: Can you name these obscure West Ham players from the PL era?

West Ham have a bit of a reputation of being very inconsistent in the transfer window. For every Paolo Di Canio, Dimitri Payet and Trevor Sinclair, there’s a Marco Boogers, Simone Zaza and Savio Nsereko.

It’s just the way the Hammers have always been. Structure and preparation in the transfer window is nowhere to be seen when they’re doing business, and there’s no surprise when they’ve had the likes of Harry Redknapp, Avram Grant and Sam Allardyce in charge over the years.

But the good thing about that is there are a lot of obscure players to have come and gone in east London during the Premier League era, which gives fans the chance to look back on both how good and bad some of them were.

Some became legends, others were cult heroes, and many will always be known as a complete waste of money.

So, while you’re sitting at home, bored and doing your best to adhere to the government’s social distancing guidelines, put your West Ham knowledge to the test by naming these obscure Hammers players from the Premier League era.

Think you know your stuff? Prove it…

Leeds United: Fans react to Patrick Bamford’s future comments

Many Leeds United fans have reacted to comments made by Patrick Bamford about the club and his own personal future.

Marcelo Bielsa’s side sit top of the Championship table as things stand and are very much on the verge of gaining promotion to the Premier League.

The Whites’ success this term has been down to a collective effort, having bounced back well from defeat in the play-off semi-final to Derby County last season.

Bamford, who has started 95% of Leeds’ league games this term, has been in and out of form, netting 13 goals and gaining three assists.

Despite a run of games over February without finding the back of net, the 26-year-old’s has been largely trusted by Bielsa and with Premier League football on the horizon, it does seem that the former Chelsea man will continue as the club’s preferred frontman.

Discussing his future at the club amongst other things, the front man has admitted that he is settled in Leeds and that he would love to remain at the club for “the foreseeable future.”

These comments have drawn a reaction from fans, who have mixed opinions over whether or not he should continue as the number one choice up front next season.

Reacting to Bamford’s comments via Twitter account @LUFCMOTcom, fans reacted…

Can you see Bamford being Leeds United striker for the foreseeable future? Let us know in the comments section below…

Arsenal: Club should sign Gabriel who could be an ideal partner for William Saliba

Arsenal should sign Gabriel as transfer news emerged from Le 10 Sport that the north London club remain likely to make concrete progress in the near future in terms of securing the LOSC Lille central defender in the upcoming summer transfer window.

As per the outlet, the file is still on the Gunners’ table, however, a deal has apparently been very advanced with an English club, probably Everton, but no final agreement has been reached to date.

The price set by the French club, around 30 million euros (roughly £26.9 million), could partly explain it, but according to the publication’s information, AFC, who have been interested for several weeks in the Brazilian defender, would keep the option open.

Indeed, Gabriel has produced some relatively impressive stats in Ligue 1 this season, as he wins 6.3 duels per game and also averages 3.3 clearances, 1.7 tackles and 0.9 interceptions per match, according to Sofascore.

These are key areas for a centre-back that Gabriel has arguably excelled in, as he could add some steel into Mikel Arteta’s team for next campaign.

If the 22-year old is signed, then the Spanish coach should consider partnering him up with the returning William Saliba, who may have learned a lot from Gabriel having played in the same domestic league with Saint-Etienne.

Also, being left-footed, Gabriel would perhaps bring a nice balance to the possible partnership if he plays on the left side of the 19-year old.

With the global pandemic potentially hitting clubs like Arsenal hard financially, £26.9 million may prove to be a decent price as other sides go hunting in the market.

Gooners, could Gabriel be an ideal partner for Saliba? Comment below!

Total Duds: Andy Carroll proved to be one of the biggest flops in Liverpool history

This article forms part of our Total Duds feature series, which is where Football Transfer Tavern takes a look at how a player has fared since being signed or sold, using statistical figures and statements from pundits to prove how bad a deal the club got.

A player many Liverpool fans look back on and groan about is none other than Andy Carroll – a player with a lot of potential but ultimately a painful flop under Anfield management.

Now 31, he joined the Reds in January 2011 as a hopeful replacement for Fernando Torres. Liverpool paid £35m to sign Carroll from Newcastle, which Alan Shearer described as ‘an incredible amount of money’ (via BBC Sport). Alongside the Englishman, former manager Kenny Dalglish also scooped up Luis Suarez – a real chalk and cheese transfer pairing.

Despite the sour taste Suarez has left in the mouths of fans over the years, no one can deny his influence at Liverpool. The Uruguayan pulled the strings of almost every game in which he played, finishing his career at Anfield with a total of 82 goals in 133 appearances (via Transfermarkt).

Carroll, on the other hand, could only dream of having such a spell with Liverpool. Despite costing £12.3m more than goal machine Suarez, the striker from Gateshead turned out to be nothing more than a lapse in judgement.

Carroll survived less than two seasons at the club and amassed 11 goals and six assists in that time (via Transfermarkt). Not only did he struggle to make an impact in attack, he was ruled out with injury on several occasions. He joined the Reds whilst already carrying a thigh injury and was sidelined for four games upon his arrival (as per Transfermarkt).

After recovering, Carroll played just seven games before picking up another injury. This time he was ruled out with a knee problem and missed the last match of the 2010/11 season, which Liverpool lost (as per Transfermarkt).

The forward had an injury-free second season at Anfield but only managed to net four Premier League goals in 35 appearances. In 2013, Carroll was sold to West Ham for less than half of what Liverpool originally paid out for him. Brendan Rodgers offloaded him for £15m following a loan spell with the Irons.

Ultimately, the signing of Carroll will be one the Liverpool board of the time will want to forget. Not only has he marked his name as one of the Reds’ worst-ever strikers, but he cost the club a net £20m deficit, which was a hefty amount seven years ago.

Luckily for Liverpool, they have now figured out which players should be invested in and which should be avoided at all costs.

What are your worst memories from Andy Carroll’s spell at Liverpool, Reds fans? Join the conversation in the comments below!

Charlton: Potential takeover party thinks Addicks will stay up this season

The Portuguese business consortium interested in acquiring ownership of Charlton Athletic has heaped praise on the dynamic of the club. 

Fernando Corte-Real, who represents Corporate Football Organisation (CFO), has spoken to the media about his interest in buying the club.

The Portuguese businessman has outlined his intent for if or when he acquires Charlton and admits it will be a long-term project to get the Addicks to where they deserve to be.

“In companies there is great rigour and control, and sometimes, in football, things are not quite like that,” Corte-Real told A Bola (via Sport Witness). “It’s a very simple idea, without any magic wand. We want to do things well and those who now work at the club can continue with us.”

CFO have been linked to the club along with former Swansea City chairman Huw Jenkins. The ownership of Charlton will change hands for the second time in a year after the relationship with current owners East Street Investments collapsed.

Corte-Real went on to praise the Addicks’ youth setup and he believes this can be utilised in achieving success.

“Our logic is to build from the bottom up, and Charlton have a strong academy, which, we believe, can be a smart way to balance the team and reduce the need for investment,” he continued. Indeed, Charlton boast an impressive youth system, which has seen the likes of Joe Gomez graduate and go on to conquer Europe and, inevitably, the Premier League.

The CFO businessman also believes Charlton will survive the drop this season. He has outlined that plans will change if the team are relegated but Corte-Real is confident that Lee Bowyer’s men will “stay up”.

This kind of talk is exactly what the Addicks need as they walk wearily towards a new working relationship. This year has been a turbulent one for fans and some stability and genuine belief in the club is the ideal way to start fresh.

Bowyer and his side have a fight on their hands once they return to Championship action, but maybe with some hope of potential owners joining who believe in their ability, they may be able to pull through and remain in the second tier.

What do you make of Corte-Real’s words, Charlton fans? Have your say in the comments below…

Glasgow Rangers: Gers almost signed Jamie Vardy before Leicester move

Ally McCoist has revealed only Glasgow Rangers’ financial situation prevented him from signing Jamie Vardy before he moved to Leicester City.

Vardy has blossomed into one of the best strikers in the Premier League since moving to the Foxes. He has scored 99 goals in the English top flight, has fired the Midlands outfit to a Premier League title and even has a record for scoring in the most consecutive matches (11).

However, it could have been a very different story according to McCoist. He explained on talkSPORT (via The Herald):

“I remember looking at him when he was at Fleetwood and I was at Rangers. I couldn’t get the money to get him.

“I had John Brown, my chief scout, look at him two or three times. It was an absolute no-brainer but we couldn’t get the money to get him.

“He’s been fantastic. We couldn’t get the money at that time, it was amazing. And we weren’t talking a lot of money, it was unbelievable, absolutely unbelievable.

“That’s just more the position our club was in at that particular time, to tell you the truth.

“Thankfully for Jamie, he made the correct decision and never let me anywhere near him.”

At the time, Vardy had been lethal with Fleetwood, scoring a huge 31 goals in 36 games in the Conference, whilst also providing 17 assists as well. In the end, Leicester spent £1m on him, making him the most expensive non-league player of all time.

Now valued at £14.4m by Transfermarkt and with 26 England caps to his name, it is arguably the best £1m Leicester have ever spent. For McCoist and the Gers, though, they may just have to think of what might have been.

Let us know what you think below!

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